5 takeaways:

➀ Despite the high-profile battles in Washington, most federal spending is on autopilot. For fiscal 2021’s budget of $6.8 trillion, 71% goes to mandatory spending, covering programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food assistance and government pensions, according to Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Those programs don’t go through the annual appropriations process and don’t get “nearly as much attention” from Congress as a discretionary program, MacGuineas said. She said lawmakers should do more to oversee mandatory programs because Social Security and Medicare are headed toward insolvency. “We spend $6 per senior on every $1 we spend on people under 18,” she said.

➁ Deficits and the national debt are projected to continue increasing over the next 30 years. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy was approaching record budget deficits, said Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition. During the World War II era, the debt held by the public reached over 100% of gross domestic product (see here). This trend is part of a “structural gap imbalance between revenue and spending, where spending is on track to grow faster than revenue,” Bixby said. While revenues relative to GDP spending are expected to be consistently flat over the next 10 years — about 18% — spending is projected to be above average at roughly 23%, he explained. By 2036, Social Security, major health care programs and interest on the national debt will “consume all revenues,” he said.

➂ Reporters should pay attention to how federal money flows into state budgets. Over 90% of all federal spending happens in the states. This covers areas like retirement benefits, grants, Medicaid and now COVID-19. Of all federal funds to states in 2020, 25% went to COVID-19 spending, and 49% went to Medicaid, which dominates grants to states year after year, according to Rebecca Thiess, an associate manager at Pew Charitable Trusts. She said that the American Rescue Plan under the Biden administration provided states more spending flexibility than the CARES Act during the Trump administration. Of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan budget, almost $200 billion went directly to states. “We saw that for some states like South Dakota and Wyoming, this aid represents a huge boost for their budgets,” Thiess said. See this map showing how American Rescue Plan funds compare with the size of states’ budgets.

➃ Don’t let the federal budget topic area intimidate you — there are plenty of resources to help you. Journalists looking to learn more about the process should connect with groups, such as the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which have “helpful primers on just what the real budget process entails,” said Caitlin Emma, a budget and appropriations reporter at Politico. Emma also recommends the Congressional Research Service, where you can search for explanations of specific terms and track House and Senate progress on the passage of annual spending bills. A must-follow entity is the Congressional Budget Office, which provides cost estimates on legislation. “They periodically release budget and economic projections, both short and long term, and those get a lot of play in the news whenever they’re released,” Emma said.

➄ Money matters —  so following and reporting on it is crucial. Renae Merle, a features editor at The Washington Post, urges journalists to ensure their audiences understand that “a lot of the stories that influence their everyday lives have a background in money.” Explain why a piece of legislation matters, the concerns people have about it and who should be held accountable for it are the ways reporters should approach budget stories, Merle said. Pay close attention to regulators and their actions. They get little attention and make many important decisions that affect people, she argued. “There’s just one line in a budget, and if nobody explains it to you or really takes the time to dig deep and find out why [certain] stuff was done, people will look over it and not understand why their lives are changing,” Merle said.

Speakers: 

Robert Bixby, Executive Director, Concord Coalition

Caitlin Emma, Budget and Appropriations Reporter, Politico

Colin Foard, Manager, Fiscal Federalism Initiative, Pew Charitable Trusts

Greg Ip, Chief Economics Commentator, The Wall Street Journal

Maya MacGuineas, President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Renae Merle, Features Editor, The Washington Post

Damian Paletta, Economics Editor, The Washington Post

Rebecca Thiess, Manager, Fiscal Federalism Initiative, Pew Charitable Trusts

This program, part of the Paul Miller Fellowship, was funded by the Walter and Karla Goldschmidt Foundation and other donations to the National Press Foundation, which is solely responsible for its content.