The Latino population in the U.S. has more than quintupled in the past 50 years, making it a focus for both political parties.

“It’s projected to just keep going up, so this is really critical to understanding what is going on with the electorate, why we’re seeing immigration backlash,” said Angie Gutierrez, a postdoctoral fellow of Mexican and Latino studies at the University of Texas at Austin. “In places that are primarily white, we see a lot of anti-immigrant laws, copycat laws … that could be politically motivating, not only for Latinos but for whites as well.” Transcript | Video

While Latino voters overall skew Democratic, the GOP is gaining.

“Latinos are not a monolith and they do not vote as such,” said Acacia Coronado, Associated Press Texas government reporter and a former NPF fellow. “We as journalists have a responsibility … in thinking beyond the ethnic group that we are interviewing and more into the communities in themselves and everything that builds them – their geographic location, their history, who that person is and what makes them who they are and how that informs their vote.”

Republican gains among Latino voters

While Biden carried Latinos in 2020, he was 17 percentage points lower than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin, Coronado noted. Strategists credit a GOP focus on employment and “traditional religious values” over immigration.

For instance, in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, many fourth-generation families may vote on job opportunities rather than immigration. “A lot of families in this area, their source of income is people in their family who work for CBP or ICE,” she said.

Gutierrez noted that messages labeling Democrats as socialists also influence some Latino voters.

“Venezuelans, Cubans and others who came from socialist countries are more likely to be influenced by that socialism rhetoric. ‘I don’t want Joe Biden because he’s a socialist.’ … That’s the story that a lot of people heard on the disinformation side,” she said.

Factors that influence voting: Geography, country of origin, religion, education

The Latino population has not only grown but its makeup has shifted as well.

“Latino is a pan-ethnic term. It is not a race,” Gutierrez said. “In 2000, when the Latino population was close to 35 million, Mexican Americans made up 58.46% of (that),” but in the past 20 years, the Central American and South American populations have increased.. “Things that motivate South American and Central American voters are not necessarily going to be the same thing that’s going to be motivating the Mexican voters. The Cuban voters have been dwindling in size over the decades, and this is likely going to continue. This is an important story, especially for those of you covering Florida, because Florida had been historically Cuban. A historically Cuban state is going to vote more Republican. So when you’re out reporting, you have to think … which Latino population am I covering?”

Gutierrez recommends looking at data on the percent foreign-born in a voting population. This has been declining, she said, which means “more of the Latino population in the United States is going to be the second-and third-generation Latinos. Second-generation Latinos still are likely going to be motivated by an immigration story … what you’re talking about is their parents. You’re talking about their friends, their relatives. … When you get to the third generation, that’s where you might start seeing some distancing there, so taking into account generational factors is also another important part of your story.”

The saliency of immigration also varies based on geography, being of higher interest in the Southwest and less so in Pennsylvania, for example.

“Pennsylvania was a huge focus for Democrats because Pennsylvania was a swing state in 2020. Pennsylvania has a large Puerto Rican population … If you’re trying to influence Puerto Rican voters, you’re not going to hit them with an immigration story because Puerto Rico is a part of the United States.”

Issues to watch

While immigration remains an issue, it is far from the only or even, for some, a primary consideration.

“Latino voters, first and foremost, are Americans who have the same problems with jobs, with COVID, and with getting their kids back in schools and making sure that they’re having good education,” Gutierrez said.

Latinas, particularly, are attaining higher education at higher rates so for them, student loan debt may be a motivating factor in how they vote, she said.

Coronado and Gutierrez both agreed that health care, specifically abortion access, would be a motivating factor for not only Latinas but the population as a whole in the 2022 midterms.

Voter suppression

Latinos vote at lower rates than many other racial and ethnic groups, and keeping that rate down may benefit some campaigns, Gutierrez said.

Coronado pointed out that while Latinos accounted for a huge boost in the population of Texas in the latest Census count, due to redistricting, “Texas will now have seven U.S. House districts where Latino residents hold a majority, down from eight,” she said. “The plan does not create any additional districts where Black or Hispanic voters make up more than 50% of the voting-age population … even as people of color are accounted for more than nine of 10 new residents in Texas over the past decade.”

Texas has also increased criminal penalties for volunteers who assist voters, including those who provide translation help, Coronado said.

“Democrat groups, civil rights organizations and voting rights organizations have said that they worry that the history of Texas groups, including conservative groups, using poll watchers to intimidate racial and ethnic minorities will become an issue once (Senate Bill 1) comes into play in the November election.”

The U.S. Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against Texas over the law.

The Statehouse Reporting Fellowship is sponsored by Arnold Ventures. NPF is solely responsible for the content.