5 takeaways:

➀ Understand the Minsk agreements and how Putin has made them moot. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the official U.S. policy on Ukraine was that the Russian implementation of the Minsk agreements, negotiated in 2014 after the conflict that followed the Russian annexation of Crimea, was the only way to peace in Ukraine. The two agreements were intended to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine but have been mostly honored in the breach. In recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk as breakaway republics, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Minsk agreements had failed and therefore no longer existed. “Putin has, in effect, undercut the whole purpose” of the agreements, said John Tefft, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and before that Ukraine, told NPF’s Paul Miller fellows on Feb. 22. “You’ve now given up … the possibility of finding a negotiated solution,” Tefft said. “The chances weren’t great, and that’s perhaps why he did it. But it’s no longer even a prospect.”

➁ “Has Putin overreached?” “There’s been a low rumble of concern, of opposition to what Putin has been doing in Ukraine, from military sources [in the region],” Tefft said. “There’s also been reports of Russian businessmen being upset because their businesses are going to get hit hard by sanctions,” either short- or long- term.” Tefft said Russia is spending billions annually to support Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk would more than double that. Putin’s lengthy speech Feb. 21 “where he basically reinterpreted Russian Soviet history” made the point that there is no Ukrainian state, Tefft said. Putin’s attitude and Russia’s actions since 2014 have “caused the number of people in Ukraine who disliked Putin and disliked the policy to rise substantially.” Tefft noted that Ukrainian public support for NATO membership has soared from about 24% in 2009 to about 65% or higher now.

➂ Will Putin send troops to Kyiv? “The other larger question is, with all of the troops that are in Belarus and the ships with troops in the Black Sea, is Putin still going to go ahead and try to launch a much larger invasion?” Tefft asked. While Russian troops in Belarus could come down to Kyiv, Tefft notes that the Ukrainian military has “got a lot more weapons now than they ever had in 2014.” In particular, Ukraine now has Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones that were effective against Russian forces in Syria and in eastern Ukraine.

➃ Expect cyberwarfare. “The Russians took down the Ukrainian Defense Ministry website for three or four hours” last week, Tefft noted. A massive Russian cyber attack can be expected to try to take down communications, public utilities and military command and control, he said. “Being able to withstand that and still manage will be a critical factor in what happens next inside of Ukraine.”

➄ Tap sources in Eurasia and the U.S. In addition to your usual sources on Russia, Tefft recommends joining as many webinars with Russian experts as possible. “The hardest thing is to get a feel for what’s going on on the ground there [in Moscow], also in Ukraine.” He also recommends speaking with Russian journalists, if possible, and Russian experts at U.S. think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment. Meanwhile, experts on disinformation are warning journalists and the public at large to be careful with the information they share. “The aftermath of an attack is always when we see a flood of propaganda,” tweeted Jane Lytvynenko, a Ukrainian research fellow at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy. “It’s very important to be vigilant with the news we share now.” She wrote about watching livestreams of Kyiv: “There’s no algorithm … the livestream is not trying to convince me of anything.”

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Speaker:

John Tefft, Senior Fellow, RAND Corporation; Former United States Ambassador to Russia and Ukraine

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